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Population rebound from pandemic continues in D.C. region, data show

The D.C. metro area outpaced other northeast cities in population growth rates, according to an analysis by a Brookings Institution demographer.

By Marissa Lang | 2024-03-14

A collage of records from the 1950 U.S. census. (Census Bureau/The Washington Post) (Philip Bump/TWP)

The D.C. area's rebound from the pandemic continued last year as the District and its surrounding counties continued to see steady growth -- and their most significant population gains since 2018 -- even as other major American cities contracted, according to estimates released Wednesday by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The majority of U.S. counties grew between July 2022 and July 2023, the numbers show, including those that struggled to retain residents amid pandemic shutdowns and the expansion of work-from-anywhere opportunities. Overall, population growth rates in cities and metropolitan areas have continued to climb back toward pre-pandemic levels, the bureau's Vintage 2023 estimates of population change show.

The D.C. metro area outpaced other northeast cities in population growth rates, according to an analysis by Brookings Institution senior demographer William Frey, and added approximately 39,000 people to its overall population -- with about 6,000 people, or a medium-size college, into the District alone. Most of that increase was driven by migrants from abroad.

"The big takeaway here is that these big metro areas have come back, really," Frey said. "In 2020 to 2021, we saw big metros take a hit. They came back somewhat last year, but certainly we see it this year."

American cities overall have struggled to return to pre-pandemic population levels and growth rates in the face of rising housing costs, more telework options and perceptions that crime is on the rise, making cities less safe. But the District, when compared to other large U.S. cities, has grown.

"On a macro level, D.C. has always been a pretty livable city -- there's tons of green space, it's very neighborhood-centric. It's a very unusual city in that way, very unique," said Nina Albert, D.C.'s deputy mayor for planning and economic development. She added that D.C.'s livability has made the District "more resilient than most other cities."

The region's accelerating population growth has done little to relieve some areas of the District hit hardest by pandemic closures and the absence of remote workers. Despite a $400 million plan from Mayor Muriel E. Bowser and city business leaders aimed at resuscitating downtown, office attendance remains below 50 percent, storefronts sit vacant and anxiety over the future of the District's core has continued to climb.

Albert said the census data released Wednesday captures the District in a state of flux, with city officials and business leaders ramping up efforts to bring people downtown in part by creating more opportunities for them to live there.

"The investments we have are really geared toward attracting more residents into the city," Albert said in an interview this week. "Downtown would fill up with residents except we have to have the housing for them to move into."

Bowser has outlined a goal of creating enough housing in the downtown sector for 15,000 new residents by 2028 -- an aim that would require about 3,750 people to move into the area annually. The District's population growth between 2022 and 2023 outstripped that goal.

"We are clear on the direction we need to go," Albert said. "The private and public sector are still wrestling with how this is going to work."

Across the country, census officials said in a statement, domestic migratory patterns have shifted over the past few years. Areas that lost residents during the depths of the coronavirus pandemic saw renewed growth last year. Meanwhile, growth in western U.S. counties in states such as Arizona and Idaho -- destinations for many East Coast city dwellers who sought more space and cost-effective housing -- slowed.

Metropolitan areas throughout the South continued to be choice destinations for Americans moving within the country. The 10 counties with the largest net domestic growth rates are all in the South, data shows. Conversely, the 10 counties with the largest out-migration rates were mostly large metro areas in the Northeast, Midwest and in California.

Cities like New York, Chicago and Los Angeles suffered substantial overall population losses in the past year, even as they continued to see a steady influx of immigrants, data show. More deaths than births and significant out-migration from those areas tipped the scales far enough that even tens of thousands of new immigrants could not account for population losses, Frey said.

The D.C. region was insulated some from its population loss by having a higher birthrate than death rate and seeing an influx of immigrants to several of its counties.

"Our international community post-covid is really coming back to the region and to the office," Albert said of D.C.

Montgomery and Prince George's counties in Maryland; Fairfax County in Virginia; and the District were in the top 1 percent of U.S. counties for net international migration for the 2022 to 2023 year, according to Frey's analysis.

"Immigration has been really important over the last two years," Frey said. "Almost all metropolitan areas and all states have had more immigrants coming in the last year than compared to the previous year."

The latest census estimates do not delve into specific demographic information such as race, ethnicity or age.


This article was downloaded by calibre from https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2024/03/14/census-population-growth-dc-pandemic/


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