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NCAA tournament bracketology: A massive day for major teams on the bubble

Selection Sunday is three days away, major conference tournaments are heating up, and NCAA tournament bubble teams are making their final statements.

By Patrick Stevens | 2024-03-14

None of the obvious borderline candidates played their way out of the NCAA tournament Wednesday.

Not Wake Forest. Not Providence. Not New Mexico. And not Villanova (though heaven knows the Wildcats tried).

With no glaring missteps, the projected field of 68 doesn't look much different from the past few days. (Montana State swapping spots with rival Montana after earning an 85-70 victory in the Big Sky title game is an exception.)

Today's schedule, however, could lead to much more movement.

Big Ten second round: Michigan State vs. Minnesota (noon, Big Ten Network)

Michigan State's metrics -- as well as its victories over Baylor, Illinois and edge-of-the-field darling Indiana State -- mean it probably isn't falling out of the field. But getting nudged into play-in territory? That's in play for the Spartans (18-13) if they lose to Minnesota (18-13).

Bracket impact: More of a seeding and slotting concern than inclusion for Michigan State, which hasn't done anything terrible (and losing to the top-100 Golden Gophers in Minneapolis wouldn't count as terrible).

SEC second round: Mississippi State vs. LSU (1 p.m., SEC Network)

Mississippi State (19-12) isn't falling out of the field, but there's a slight chance it could slip to Dayton. They won their only matchup with the Tigers (17-14) during the regular season, a 20-point rout in Baton Rouge on Feb. 24.

Bracket impact: A game with an impact only for those trying to figure out who will be in play-in territory. Mississippi State met that fate last year (and then lost to Pitt), which makes the Bulldogs a good candidate to care about such things.

American Athletic second round: Memphis vs. Wichita State (approx. 2:30 p.m., ESPNU)

Dotting some I's and crossing some T's by including Memphis (22-9), which is a commendable 6-6 against the top two quadrants but also has a Quad 4 loss at home to Rice to answer for. The Tigers open play in the AAC tournament against the 14-18 Shockers.

Bracket impact: Nothing yet, but Memphis has won four of five to at least earn fringy status.

ACC quarterfinal: Pittsburgh vs. Wake Forest (approx. 2:30, ESPN2)

The juiciest game for bracket-related purposes at the ACC tournament features the fifth-seeded Demon Deacons (20-12) facing fourth-seeded Pitt (21-10). Wake Forest never trailed Wednesday in a 72-59 defeat of Notre Dame. It sure has the look of an NCAA tournament eliminator game for both teams.

Bracket impact: Winner to Dayton? Maybe. But both could have more work to do even with a victory. That holds especially for Pitt, which has to answer for a nonconference schedule ranked 342nd.

Big East quarterfinal: Seton Hall vs. St. John's (approx. 2:30, Fox Sports 1)

Seton Hall (20-11) has done a lot for a team with relatively modest metrics -- wins against Connecticut and Marquette chief among them. It can stand out even more by taking a third matchup with the Red Storm (19-12), which owns exactly one victory over the projected field. This, along with Pitt/Wake Forest, is one of the few games this week when both teams are battling for their postseason hopes.

Bracket impact: The winner improves its chances of getting in, and Seton Hall probably won't have to sweat come Sunday if it does. The loser has a long wait until the field of 68 is unveiled.

Big Ten second round: Iowa vs. Ohio State (6:30, BTN)

The Big Ten's sleeper team (at least for a stealth at-large push) is whichever one wins this game. Iowa (18-13) would have been quite close to cracking the field had it upended Illinois on Sunday. The Hawkeyes didn't, but a win against the Buckeyes (19-12) would give them another shot at the Fighting Illini. As for Ohio State, it's closer to the edge of the field than you'd expect for a team that fired its coach last month.

Bracket impact: The conversation gets a little interesting for the winner only if it is followed by a victory over Illinois on Friday.

Big 12 quarterfinal: Kansas State vs. Iowa State (7, ESPN2)

Kansas State had lost nine of 11 to seemingly fall out of the at-large picture. The Wildcats (19-13) then beat Iowa State to close the regular season and Texas to open the Big 12 tournament. K-State doesn't have the greatest set of team sheet metrics, but now it owns a high-end victory away from home and warrants a reappraisal. The initial verdict: Beating Iowa State (24-7) is probably a necessity.

Bracket impact: Kansas State has no bad losses and a 5-7 record in Quad 1 games. The Wildcats would become a sneaky candidate for a trip to Dayton if they can trip up Iowa State for a second huge victory in as many days.

Big East quarterfinal: Providence vs. Creighton (7, Fox Sports 1)

Providence took a pass/fail test in the first round Wednesday. It passed, dismissing Georgetown, 74-56, in a game that did nothing to improve its resume. Beating Creighton for a second time this season, this time on a neutral court? Now that would help the Friars (20-12) a great deal.

Bracket impact: If Providence wants to distinguish itself this week, this is its chance. The Friars have no bad losses and a 5-8 record in Quad 1 games. They're a classic borderline team, and this is the chance to change that.

SEC second round: Texas A&M vs. Mississippi (7, SEC Network)

Mississippi (20-11) has lost eight of 10 to fade from at-large contention, but it can finish off Texas A&M's tournament hopes. The Aggies (18-13) have a colorful resume that includes an 11-9 record in games against the top two Quadrants (including wins over Tennessee, Iowa State and Kentucky), but they've also scattered four Quad 3 losses into the mix.

Bracket impact: Texas A&M could be one of the tougher teams to evaluate, but it would get a lot easier to do so if it loses to Mississippi.

Atlantic 10 quarterfinal: Dayton vs. Duquesne (approx. 7:30, USA)

Third-seeded Dayton (24-6) can actually help create space in the field by winning the Atlantic 10 tournament because no one else in the league has a viable shot at an at-large bid. They'll need to win three games in four days, starting with a matchup against sixth-seeded Duquesne (21-11).

Bracket impact: Teams right on the cut line will be rooting for Dayton to plow its way through the bracket in Brooklyn.

ACC quarterfinal: Virginia vs. Boston College (approx. 9:30, ESPN)

Third-seeded Virginia (22-9) is the last team out of 15 to take the floor in the ACC tournament. Boston College (19-14) has already won twice, including a 76-55 throttling of Clemson in Wednesday's second round. The Cavaliers might have been able to withstand a loss to Clemson. They probably can't do the same against the much-improved Eagles.

Bracket impact: Virginia might be facing a win-and-get-in situation. It would be wise to handle its business against the Eagles.

Big 12 quarterfinal: Cincinnati vs. Baylor (approx. 9:30, ESPN2)

Cincinnati, the No. 11 seed, crushed shorthanded Kansas on Wednesday to keep its faint at-large hopes alive. The Bearcats (20-13) and their stingy defense will be tested by third-seeded Baylor (22-9), which owns the most efficient offense in Big 12 play according to KenPom.com.

Bracket impact: Another win would help Cincinnati apply some pressure to the committee, but it is still a team with a 4-10 record in Quadrant 1 games and a pair of Quadrant 3 losses. Simply getting to the Big 12 semifinals probably won't get the job done.

Big East quarterfinal: Villanova vs. Marquette (approx. 9:30, Fox Sports 1)

Sixth-seeded Villanova (18-14) survived -- barely -- against 3-29 DePaul in Wednesday's triple-header nightcap at Madison Square Garden. If a team needs a late three-pointer to escape, 58-57, against the lowly Blue Demons, it isn't making a great impression. Know what would? Beating third-seeded Marquette (23-8), which swept a pair of meetings from the Wildcats in January.

Bracket impact: Villanova's tournament hopes hinge on winning this game.

Pac-12 quarterfinal: Colorado vs. Utah (approx. 11:30, Fox Sports 1)

Without much wiggle room, third-seeded Colorado (22-9) has rattled off six victories in a row to work its way into a good position. The Buffaloes will face sixth-seeded Utah (19-13), which ripped Arizona State late Wednesday and is a fringy -- at best -- at-large candidate.

Bracket impact: Utah needs a deeper run than the Pac-12 quarterfinals. But that could be enough for Colorado, especially if it runs into Washington State in the semifinals.

Mountain West quarterfinal: New Mexico vs. Boise State (approx. 11:30, CBS Sports Network)

New Mexico (23-9) had dropped six of 10 before clobbering Air Force, 82-56, on Wednesday. But the Lobos could use a victory away from Albuquerque against a surefire tournament team to pair with its Feb. 13 triumph at Nevada. Facing Boise State (22-9) provides that sort of opportunity.

Bracket impact: Quite possibly a make-or-break game for the Lobos' postseason chances.

Last four included: Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Indiana State

First four on the outside: St. John's, Providence, Wake Forest, Pitt

Next four on the outside: Texas A&M, Villanova, Iowa, Cincinnati

Moving in: Montana State

Moving out: Montana

Conference call: Big 12 (9), SEC (7), Big Ten (6), Mountain West (6), ACC (4), Big East (4), Pac-12 (3), American Athletic (2), Atlantic 10 (2), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

Bracket projection: Midwest vs. West; East vs. South

Isaiah Stevens and Colorado State appear to be in good shape heading into the Mountain West quarterfinals. (Carson Field/The Gazette/AP)

Indianapolis

(1) BIG TEN/Purdue vs. (16) SWAC/Grambling-NORTHEAST/Wagner winner

(8) Gonzaga vs. (9) Colorado State

Spokane, Wash.

(5) Texas Tech vs. (12) SUN BELT/James Madison

(4) Auburn vs. (13) BIG WEST/UC Irvine

Memphis

(3) Baylor vs. (14) OHIO VALLEY/Morehead State

(6) Dayton vs. (11) Indiana State-Virginia winner

Indianapolis

(7) Boise State vs. (10) Mississippi State

(2) Creighton vs. (15) CONFERENCE USA/Sam Houston

Colorado State should be clear of getting shipped to Dayton after defeating San Jose State in the first round of the Mountain West tournament. The Rams get Nevada in Thursday's quarterfinals. ... Could a deep Big 12 tournament run push Texas Tech up to the No. 4 line? Possibly. The Red Raiders have to contend with Brigham Young in the event's 4/5 game on Thursday. ...

It's total wait-and-see mode at Indiana State, which is in the clubhouse at 28-6. The Sycamores would be an obvious winner if the bulk of the edge-of-the-field teams sputter over the next two days. ... Creighton is not permitted to play on its home floor in the opening weekend, so it won't be staying in Omaha. Indianapolis is the next closest subregional to the Bluejays' campus.

Montana State secured its third straight NCAA tournament berth when it won the Big Sky championship game Wednesday night. (Kyle Green/AP)

Charlotte

(1) ACC/North Carolina vs. (16) BIG SKY/Montana State-MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC/Norfolk State winner

(8) Florida vs. (9) Texas Christian

Spokane, Wash.

(5) WEST COAST/Saint Mary's vs. (12) AMERICAN ATHLETIC/South Florida

(4) Illinois vs. (13) SOUTHERN/Samford

Pittsburgh

(3) Kansas vs. (14) HORIZON/Oakland

(6) San Diego State vs. (11) IVY/Princeton

Charlotte

(7) Washington State vs. (10) Michigan State

(2) SEC/Tennessee vs. (15) PATRIOT/Colgate

Montana State hadn't won three games in a row all season heading into the Big Sky tournament, then did so over a three-day period to lock up its third NCAA berth in a row. The Bobcats (17-17) will make their sixth all-time NCAA tournament trip, and their .500 record and uninspiring metrics make them a prime candidate to go to Dayton. ... South Florida doesn't rank in the top 50 of any of the five team sheet metrics, it played only one Quad 1 game (a one-point win at Memphis) and it lost at home to Maine (NET of 235) and Central Michigan (258). The Bulls are an awesome story, but they need to win the American Athletic to get in. ...

Maybe Illinois or Kentucky can scoot by Kansas for the last No. 3 seed after the Jayhawks went one-and-done in the Big 12 tournament. But if the committee assumes the Jayhawks will get Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar back next week, it's hard to overlook Kansas's body of work. The Jayhawks will probably end up somewhere between 11 and 14 on the S-curve come Sunday night. ... Colgate will make its seventh NCAA tournament appearance after polishing off its fifth Patriot League tournament title in the past six years.

Texas may have knocked itself down a seed line when it lost to Kansas State in the Big 12 tournament Wednesday. (Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images)

Brooklyn

(1) BIG EAST/Connecticut vs. (16) BIG SOUTH/Longwood

(8) Texas vs. (9) Northwestern

Salt Lake City

(5) Brigham Young vs. (12) WESTERN ATHLETIC/Grand Canyon

(4) Alabama vs. (13) SOUTHLAND/McNeese State

Pittsburgh

(3) Duke vs. (14) MID-AMERICAN/Toledo

(6) Wisconsin vs. (11) Colorado-New Mexico winner

Omaha

(7) South Carolina vs. (10) Seton Hall

(2) Iowa State vs. (15) SUMMIT/South Dakota State

Texas has nothing to fear about getting into the tournament, but losing one 7/10 game (to Kansas State in the Big 12 tournament Wednesday) diminishes its chances of making another (in the NCAA tournament). ... Former Louisiana State coach Will Wade has McNeese State back in the tournament for the first time since 2002 after the Cowboys (30-3) posted a pair of blowouts on their home floor to win the Southland. McNeese will make its third all-time tournament trip. ...

Duke looks like a solid No. 3 seed. Even maxing out against the best possible remaining opponents at the ACC tournament (N.C. State, Virginia and North Carolina) probably won't lift the Blue Devils' resume into the top eight. ... The deeper South Carolina (25-6) goes in the SEC tournament, the more curious its NCAA seeding becomes. The Gamecocks do well on result-based metrics but are barely in the top 50 in predictive metrics. They'll face Arkansas on Thursday.

Johnell Davis and Florida Atlantic can help another bubble team make the field if the Owls win the American Athletic Conference championship. (Scott Audette/AP)

Memphis

(1) BIG 12/Houston vs. (16) ATLANTIC SUN/Stetson

(8) Nebraska vs. (9) Florida Atlantic

Brooklyn

(5) MOUNTAIN WEST/Utah State vs. (12) ATLANTIC 10/Richmond

(4) Kentucky vs. (13) AMERICA EAST/Vermont

Omaha

(3) Marquette vs. (14) COASTAL/College of Charleston

(6) Clemson vs. (11) MISSOURI VALLEY/Drake

Salt Lake City

(7) Nevada vs. (10) Oklahoma

(2) PAC-12/Arizona vs. (15) METRO ATLANTIC/Quinnipiac

Florida Atlantic, like Dayton, is a team borderline NCAA teams will be rooting for this weekend because the Owls could effectively give an at-large bid back to the field if they win the American Athletic tournament. The Owls don't take the court until Friday; they'll face North Texas or Tulane. ... Vermont is a victory over U-Mass. Lowell on Saturday away from its fifth America East tournament title in the past eight years. It will be the Catamounts' 21st conference tournament game in that span, with all of them played at home because the America East awards games to the highest seed and Vermont has largely dominated. ...

Clemson's loss in the nightcap of the ACC tournament's second round bumps the Tigers down a line. They'll head into the NCAA tournament having dropped three of four. ... Oklahoma projects as the last team in the field to avoid Dayton. The Sooners' profile -- not a ton of great victories but no awful losses -- looks a bit like Virginia's, and the Cavaliers are knocking on the door of avoiding the play-in round.


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