The Nationals won 71 games last season, a 16-win improvement over 2022, when they lost a team record 107 games and finished with the worst record in baseball. With most of the players who contributed to last year's gains back and a bevy of prospects on the cusp of the big leagues, it would be natural to expect Dave Martinez's squad to creep even closer to .500 in 2024. But while there are a number of reasons to be excited about the Nationals on Opening Day, virtually no one outside the organization is predicting another significant bump in the win column, let alone a postseason berth for the first time since 2019.
The outlook on Opening Day might be different had the Nationals been more active in free agency, but their biggest offseason acquisitions were slugger Joey Gallo, who hit. 177 with the Twins in 2023, Nick Senzel and Eddie Rosario. Last year's overachieving squad, which went 28-21 in one-run games, benefited from some luck. Based on their run differential (minus-145), the Nationals were expected to finish with 67 wins, and according to the BaseRuns metric -- a measure of how many runs a team should have scored or allowed given its offensive and defensive performance -- Washington's expected win total was 63. The bottom line: Progress of the rebuild might not be reflected in the standings this season.
Here's a look at Nationals-specific predictions from various outlets on Opening Day:
BP's proprietary PECOTA system forecasts 59 wins for Washington. In 100,000 simulations of the 2024 season using PECOTA, the Nationals didn't finish first in the NL East once. The only other specific outcomes that didn't occur at least once were the Rockies winning the division and the Braves and Dodgers finishing last in their divisions. In one simulation, Washington finished in a four-way tie for second place in the National League East with 75 wins. In another, the Nationals finished 29-133, which would be the worst full-season record since the Pittsburgh Alleghenys finished 23-113 in 1890.
The Nationals were not among the eight NL teams that ESPN's panel of 26 writers, analysts and editors picked to make the playoffs. Washington's parkway rival, the Orioles, received 22 votes to win the AL East and four votes to win the World Series, nine fewer than the Braves.
At least one of the site's panel of 88 voters picked the Nationals to earn a wild-card spot. (The Rockies and Marlins were the only teams that no one predicted would make the postseason.) Outfield prospect James Wood, who will open the season in the minors after a strong spring training, received at least one vote for NL rookie of the year, and in his bold predictions piece, Anthony Castrovince predicts Patrick Corbin will bolster his trade value by being named to the all-star team.
Brian Kenny predicts Wood will win NL rookie of the year. "Everything I saw of him in spring training, I liked, and his minor league pedigree is incredible," Kenny said.
Former Nationals General Manager Jim Bowden predicts Washington will call up Wood and Dylan Crews, the No. 2 pick in last year's draft, in the first half of the season and both will enjoy standout rookie years. "The Nationals won't be good, but they should be interesting," writes Keith Law, who forecasts 65 wins. Nationals fans rank 18th in Stephen J. Nesbitt's Hope-O-Meter rankings, which are based on a survey of fan optimism. That's up from 28th (5.6 percent optimism) in 2022 and 27th (12 percent) last year. Orioles fans, whose team begins its AL East title defense with a new owner in David Rubenstein, are baseball's most optimistic ahead of Opening Day. Washington is 27th in the Athletic's preseason power rankings.
Five out of six members of CBS's MLB staff predict the Nationals will finish last in the NL East. Washington opens the season 27th in Matt Snyder's power rankings. Mike Axisa boldly predicts that CJ Abrams will lead MLB in steals.
FanGraphs predicts the Nationals will win 66 games, three more than the Rockies, and average an MLB-worst 4.27 runs per game. One of Ben Clemens's bold predictions is that former Nationals right-hander Erick Fedde, who signed a two-year deal with the White Sox after dominating in Korea last season, will make the All-Star Game and receive Cy Young votes.
The Nationals are 28th in Zach Kram's preseason power rankings. Kram notes that Corbin could become the first pitcher in MLB history with four consecutive seasons of 30-plus starts and an ERA of 5.00 or greater. (Corbin could also become the first NL pitcher to lead the league in losses in four straight seasons. Former Washington Senators right-hander Pedro Ramos did it in the AL from 1958 to 1961.)
MASN's Mark Zuckerman predicts a five-win improvement from last season. Co-host Al Galdi is even more optimistic, forecasting an 82-80 record -- the same as Martinez's first year as manager in 2018. "I still think that there are a lot of questions with the bigger picture -- ownership, the front office, the ability to draft and develop well -- but what's undeniable is that there is a lot of young talent in this organization now," Galdi said. "... If Wood and Crews and [Brady] House can hit the ground running, if [MacKenzie] Gore can have that step-forward season, if Abrams can take another step, this could be an exciting, promising team this year."
Bustin' Loose Baseball podcast
Hosts Grant Paulsen and Tobi Altizer both predict the Nationals will go over the oddsmakers' win total of 66.5 wins, but neither expects Washington to win more than 70 games. "I think that next year is the time when they can take that next step in terms of wins and losses," Altizer said.
Zuckerman compiled predictions for MASN from eight local media members, including The Washington Post's Andrew Golden, Chelsea Janes and Spencer Nusbaum. Only two predict Washington will finish last in the NL East, and the group's predicted win total for Washington ranges from 66 to 80.
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